ACC projected win totals for all 14 teams plus best

The ACC enters the 2023 college football season with some urgency to get back to national relevance as the last two seasons have been lacking a contender to make the College Football Playoff. Clemson was the last team to make the Playoff in 2020 and outside of Clemson, it’s only Florida State way back during the inaugural Playoff in 2014 (you can count Notre Dame in 2020 but they don’t seem to want to be a real conference member).

It’s not even just having national prominence. Clemson and Florida State have absolutely dominated the ACC for the last decade-plus. In fact, outside of Pitt in 2021, those two have won every ACC Championship since 2011. So what’s in store for 2023? Can Clemson or Florida State continue their dominance and find their way back into the national picture or can some other school find their way to the top of the conference?

My college football projection model creates a projection rating for each team based on play-by-play data and adjusts for opponent. From those derived ratings, I’m able to then simulate every game of the season and project how many games a team will win, how often they win their conference or division, as well as how often they make the College Football Playoff and win the national title. These can then be used against the betting market or just for general trash talking among fan bases.

Here’s a look at what the model says for all 14 ACC teams this season. Projections for the Big 12, SEC and Big Ten have already been posted.

ACC projections

XWINS is the average win total over the model’s simulations. CONF. TITLE is how often the team won the conference title game. 6+ WINS is how often the team gained bowl eligibility.

On paper — or on my computer screen — the conference seems to be a two-team race. Clemson and Florida State are +140 and +170 to win the ACC according to BetMGM sportsbook. My model is in the same ballpark with Clemson winning about 38 percent of the time and Florida State 40 percent. The next most likely champion per my numbers is Louisville (8.4 percent) and the sportsbooks favor North Carolina at the price of +900. No matter how you look at it, it will be quite the upset for someone other than Clemson or Florida State to be crowned champion.

If you’ve forgotten or are not aware, the ACC has scrapped divisions for this season so the two teams with the best record at the end of the season will make the conference championship game. Clemson and Florida State used to be in the same division so this gives them each an easier path.

But enough about them. Who can be this year’s TCU and beat the odds and make a run to the playoff? I mentioned Louisville and North Carolina above as the next tier within the conference. Jeff Brohm comes over from Purdue to lead the Cardinals. As for North Carolina, quarterback Drake Maye returns as a very likely top-two pick come next year’s NFL Draft. The Tar Heels are breaking in a new offensive coordinator but if you’re going to make a run, why not do it with one of the most talented signal callers in the country?

The rest of the conference is really hard to back, in my opinion. Pitt, Syracuse, NC State, and Duke are probably the ones that I could see. Are they well-rounded enough to make a run? I’m not sure, but Duke quarterback Riley Leonard was quite fun last year and a good season could see him skyrocket up draft boards. Of those four teams, I think the Blue Devils probably have the highest ceiling if all things go right.

Best bets

All bets are to win 0.5 units on favorites or risk 0.5 units on underdogs unless otherwise noted.

Duke over 6.5 wins (+125)

As mentioned above, I think Duke has a really high ceiling this year. Leonard (150-to-1 to win the Heisman, wink, wink) could be one of the conference’s best quarterbacks and that can go a long way with the conference lacking any great teams outside of Clemson and Florida State. Duke has some work to do with its defense (barely inside the top 75) per my projections, but head coach Mike Elko has a pretty good track record as a defensive coach. A big jump in Year 2 would not shock me. The schedule isn’t what you’d want it to be with home games against Clemson and Notre Dame and trips to Florida State, Louisville and North Carolina, but if they get through Lafayette, Northwestern and at UConn unscathed, I think they can find four wins on the rest of the schedule.

Miami under 7.5 wins (-150)

Miami has talent and should be better than they have been, but that doesn’t take away from the fact that this team took a big step backwards during Mario Cristobal’s first season as head coach. You could argue that Cristobal underachieved at Oregon as well. I just don’t have a lot of confidence in his ability to turn around a program that has managed double-digit wins just once since 2004. The Hurricanes bring in new coordinators on both sides of the ball and a flurry of transfers, but I’m not sure it’s enough. A lot will hinge on Tyler Van Dyke reverting to 2021 form over his 2022 injury-riddled season but, even still, Miami was atrocious on both sides of the ball relative to its talent. Sure, that talent raises the floor, but last year was such a disaster that it’s hard for my projections to get them to eight wins.

Syracuse over 6.5 wins (+145)

Syracuse returns a ton of experience on defense and should be able to get after the passer with its talented defensive front. Add in Garrett Shrader returning under center — which feels like his 10th season in college football — and Syracuse could surprise some folks. Losing running back Sean Tucker to the NFL certainly hurts because he was a nice security blanket for the offense, but I like what the offense showed last season with Shrader at quarterback to give me hope this fall. The schedule isn’t all too bad, though going through October without a home game isn’t ideal, finishing the season with home games against Boston College, Pitt and Wake Forest and just one road trip to Georgia Tech should help this bet get to the window. Though, an out of conference road trip to Purdue during Week 3 will be huge for this win total.

Virginia Tech under 5.5 wins (-140)

Virginia Tech’s defense could be solid this season as Brent Pry is one of the brighter defensive minds in all of football, but it’s really hard to see the offense improving significantly from last season. At the end of 2022, Virginia Tech was a bottom-10 offense in all of college football. The portal additions were OK, but I’m not sure it’s enough to get this offense even into the top 100. If the Hokies are not able to sustain drives on offense, the average-ish defense will start to falter and that’s going to end in losses. I’m a little shocked the juice isn’t a little higher on this considering considering the Hokies face Purdue, Rutgers and go to Marshall out of conference. If the offense can’t score points, another disastrous season for Pry and the Hokies is likely.

Conference futures pick

• Florida State to win the ACC (+180)

Heisman pick

• Riley Leonard to win the Heisman (+15000) (risk 0.01 units)

(Photo of Riley Leonard: G Fiume / Getty Images)