We’ve got a real Sickos Committee game on our hands for FSU’s home ACC opener, as the Seminoles get set to take on the Louisville Cardinals, who are horrendous. No need to mix words. Florida State had a decent showing against very good Purdue and Virginia teams last week, but will now be without Cam’Ron Fletcher for the rest of the season as he went down late in the Virginia game. Can’t be any good in this program without some bad to match recently.
For those brave souls willing to watch this game, it’ll be at 1 pm on the ACC Network, live from the Donald L Tucker Center in Tallahassee, FL.
Louisville Cardinals Breakdown
The Cardinals are in the first year under new head coach Kenny Payne, who is off to a pretty terrible start. He didn’t do a great job of fixing the roster of the players that left, and the players that stayed aren’t much as far as scorers. It’s a roster that has plenty of defensive potential and versatility, they just have zero clue how to play together.
The NCAA releases NET rankings every couple of days for every team in Division 1 basketball. Louisville is ranked 360th out of 363 teams, one spot ahead of IUPUI who had one of the worst analytical seasons of all time last year (for reference, FSU is 291st). This is a team that is already 0-8, one of 16 teams without a win so far this season. Just two years ago, they had back-to-back seasons with 7 total losses. Louisville has fallen off a cliff.
You may ask, how is Louisville so bad? What are they doing wrong? The better question would be “What are they doing well?” They’re 360th in scoring at 56.1 PPG, 292nd in opp. scoring at 73.9 PPG, 358th in FG% at 37.4%, dead last 363rd in assists per game at 7.3, turn it over almost more than anyone at 17.3 ToPG, and are allowing teams to shoot 48.4% from the floor which is 348th. They really don’t do anything well.
Former TCC Eagle El Ellis is really the only player on this roster that concerns me, and he’s the only one scoring in double figures at 15.6 PPG. He’s taking a ton of shots (15 attempts per game) and hasn’t necessarily been efficient, but can get hot in a hurry. The biggest thing with him is he is not a natural point guard and is being thrusted into that role as the only decent ball handler on this roster. That has led to a disastrous result, with 3.4 assists to 4.9 turnovers. I’d imagine Florida State is going to throw multiple defenders at him to not only get the ball out of his hands but to also give FSU’s transition offense a jump start.
Other than that… it’s hard to be too concerned over anyone on this roster. Jae’lyn Withers is a good versatile defense who can do the scrappy things, Brandon Huntley-Hatfield has made some progress since transferring from Tennessee but is making his biggest impact on the boards, Sydney Curry is the Louisville Naheem McLeod… it’s less than inspiring.
There’s only one person on the roster shooting better than 33.3% from 3, and that’s JJ Traynor, who is shooting 35.7% on 1.8 attempts per game, and only Ellis is making more than one 3 per game, but he’s shooting just 30% from deep.
Florida State Seminoles Breakdown
I came away pleasantly surprised with how Florida State played Virginia and Purdue, giving both teams a run for their money. People in and around the team felt they were close to something good, but the news of Cam’Ron Fletcher’s injury definitely puts a big blow in that. Fletcher had been one of the few bright spots on this team, someone that was actually exceeding expectations coming into the year.
It’s going to be tough to replace his production and his energy, especially on the glass. This is a team that is being out-rebounded by 7 boards per game and allowing 13 offensive rebounds per game. Fletcher was grabbing two more boards than anyone else on the team. He was one of the couple of players you could tell genuinely cared about how the rebounding effort was going. Rebounding was already a concern, and it’s even more so now.
One player I’m potentially looking to get some of those minutes is De’Ante Green. He’s played sparingly, just 28 total minutes in 6 games as he keeps recovering from ACL surgery, but he’s a talented player that showed some glimpses early in the Nebraska game. If he could get a consistent 8-12 minutes and play well enough, it’ll help this team a lot until Baba Miler returns in mid-January.
Injury Report
The newest name to the injury report is Cam’Ron Fletcher, who will be out for the season with a knee injury. The exact details haven’t been specified.
Jaylan Gainey is out for the season with an ACL injury.
Baba Miller is out until January 11 due to NCAA Suspension.
Projected Starters
Florida State
G: Caleb Mills
G: Darin Green Jr
Scroll to Continue
G: Tom House
G: Matthew Cleveland
C: Naheem McLeod
Louisville
G: El Ellis
G: Michael James
F: Jae’Lyn Withers
F: Brandon Huntley-Hatfield
C: Sydney Curry
Keys to the Game
Head of the Snake: El Ellis
I’ve talked before about the “Head of the Snake” concept, where if you cut off this one guy you’ll have success. That’s Ellis. Limit his scoring opportunities, make him get rid of the ball, and you’ll be just fine in this game. I don’t trust anyone else on this roster to score if Ellis can’t get it going.
Replacing Fletcher’s Minutes
Cam’Ron Fletcher is a hard player to replace, with his rebounding and effort to score the basketball. I don’t think anyone is going to be able to give what he was giving this team early on, but someone has to play those minutes. Is De’Ante Green going to play a lot more, is Matthew Cleveland going to play 36 minutes at the 4? We’re just going to have to find out.
Live Ball Transition
If the rest of the season is any indicator, Louisville is going to turn the ball over a lot. FSU needs to make them live ball turnovers and get out in transition. FSU’s best offense has been in transition this season, and they’re going to need any kind of easy offense that they can get. Half-court offense has been a struggle, get as many easy baskets as possible.
Game Prediction
Florida State is favored by 10 points, with an over/under of 138.
FSU hasn’t been good, but Louisville is horrendous. I’ll take FSU in a low scoring affair.
Florida State 64, Louisville 56
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