Forecasters continue to warn of a “potent” and dangerous severe weather threat coming to north Florida Monday night and into Tuesday.
The National Weather Service in Tallahassee has been warning residents for almost a week that a “pretty significantly severe event” packing “multiple high-impact hazards” will threaten north Florida and could spawn “several tornadoes, some strong.” The area is currently under a slight risk (Level 2 of 5), though the Weather Service said that could be upgraded.
“Our guidance has been to not just focus on the storms but the non-thunderstorm winds could be pretty impactful,” said Israel Gonzalez, a local NWS forecaster. He noted that there has been rare and consistent model agreement on the storm threat, adding that the word “slight” may provide a false sense of security.
“The ceiling for this event is high, and we still can’t rule out a significant severe event,” the National Weather Service warns in its latest forecast. “Tornadoes (some strong) & damaging to destructive winds remain the primary hazards.”
The threat comes in two rounds starting Monday night with rain off the Gulf of Mexico. That will transition to thunderstorms with an isolated threat of severe weather and supercells that could include damaging winds, tornadoes and heavy rains.
All the while, a squall line will be developing to our west in the Mississippi valley or Louisiana area, which will rake the Gulf Coast with 40-45 mph winds well ahead of the arrival of the heaviest storms. That could result in power outages and trees falling given already wet soils.
Even higher wind gusts approaching 60 mph are expected along the coast from Franklin County westward to Walton County, forecasters warn. On the coast, “extremely dangerous beach and boating conditions are expected” and storm and gale watches are in effect.
Locally heavy rainfall is also possible with 2-4 inches expected. Forecasters say flash flooding is possible with isolated totals of 4-6 inches of precipitation possible.
Forecasters say “all modes of severe weather are possible” with this storm, and Gonzalez said “we are grateful to be able to get as much advanced notice, so it’s not taking people off guard.”
“Now is the time to prepare ahead of the high-impact weather event coming Monday night and Tuesday,” the latest forecast warns. “Use today to review your severe weather safety plans and secure any loose outdoor objects. Ensure you have multiple ways to receive warnings ahead of our next system.”